From Grudging Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”