A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
