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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.