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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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